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“The European [gas] benchmark soared 90% in the past two days, and Asia’s [benchmark] also jumped,” said Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James investment strategy analyst. “These economies rely on imported LNG, so they are affected by the disruption in Qatar’s LNG exports. As the world’s largest LNG producer, the U.S. doesn’t have the same worry as Europe or Asia—in fact, it could benefit.”
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The U.S. offensive against Iran may have come as a surprise to some, but certainly not to those on prediction markets. Over half a billion dollars was traded on Polymarket on whether the U.S. would strike Iran, making it one of the most popular wagers in the history of the platform. Just like when the U.S. struck Venezuela, there are suspicions about insider trading. Onchain analysts have flagged six bettors who made about $1.2 million by correctly wagering on the U.S. attack on Iran.